Schriftenreihe Physische Geographie Glaziologie

Titelbild: Starting zone of Kolka/Karmadon rock/ice avalanche in the Russian Caucasus (September 2002) showing Dzhimarai-khokh (4780 m a.s.l.) and the eroded Kolka glacier on the valley bottom (photo: I. Galushkin) I Summary Research on glacial hazards is challenged by current natural and human-induced and-related developments. Climate change strongly influences the dynamics in glacial and periglacial environments. Strong retreat of mountain glaciers and permafrost degradation can lead to conditions never experienced in historical times and modify related hazard effects. Parallel intensification of human activity in mountain areas accentuates potential conflicts with natural hazards. Such rapid changes necessarily require monitoring techniques and models to simulate the effects of adverse natural processes on human systems. This study is concerned with hazards from ice avalanches, glacial lake outbursts, periglacial debris flows and related interactions. The lack of rigorous methods for assessment of glacial hazards was motivation to present a concept of glacial hazards and their assessment based on event magnitude and probability of occurrence. Physical understanding, experience and empirical relationships are the major basis of the methods proposed. Information on the surface characteristics of glacial and periglacial areas is derived from satellite remote sensing imagery and related image processing techniques. Methods are presented for detection of steep and potentially hazardous glaciers as well as for detection and assessment of glacial lakes and possibly unstable periglacial debris reservoirs. Terrain modeling based on publicly available or remote sensing-derived digital elevation models (DEMs) supports the analysis. GIS-models using flow-routing algorithms allow for first-order assessment of the impacts from glacial hazards. The methods were primarily developed in the European Alps but applications in remote and large high-mountain regions such as the Andes show the large potential of such methods in these areas. Application in practice is facilitated by the simplicity of the models and their applicability in different contexts, and has been achieved for a number of case studies. Research perspectives benefit from the trend towards very-high resolution satellite sensors and an increasing availability of remote sensing-derived DEMs. The related flood of data requires adequate assimilation and processing techniques. The methods and models presented here are designed to take advantage of present and future remote sensing imagery and terrain data. Acknowledgements This study has been made possible by a grant from the Swiss National Science Foundation (project 21-59045.99). I have been supported by many persons throughout this time, and would like to sincerely thank them all. It is …